From Europe to the Southern Border
11.26.2018
Here are some thoughts regarding the situation at our southern border, and what can be learned from 2015 migration to Europe.
Some time ago I had a conversation with Vaclav Klaus, the former president of the Czech Republic, during which he asked me what I believed to the biggest threat to the West. While my initial response at the time was either Russia or militant Islam, he suggested that it is the West itself. Issues once considered by Americans to be European and by Europeans to be American are no longer the case. This can be seen as we follow the migration to our southern border.
Aside from the MS13 members that are embedded within the migrants, few are talking about the other threats like Islamic militants. In the past several months a middle-eastern intelligence source told me that there are 90,000 “refugees” waiting on the Libyan border waiting to migrate to Italy, of which 1% are active militants. Guatemalan President, Jimmy Morales, has been quoted that they alone have apprehended 100 militants related to ISIS. The one hundred that the Guatemalans have apprehended at that time represented approximately 2.5%, and that doesn’t include those that they have not apprehended as the total number of migrants continues to grow. In Europe, terrorist re-grouping was easy within big Islamic communities of Brussels and Paris.
In 2015, I met with members of congress to discuss the migration to Europe from places like Syria, Libya and Turkey and how we can learn for future threats to our borders. The overwhelming response I received was “That’s a European issue, we don’t have to worry about that here” then sometime thereafter it became “I am trying to keep President Obama at 10,000 refugees rather than the 100,000 he wants to bring in”. The evolution of the crisis is clear and now this is no longer just a “European issue”. Here are some things we can learn from the 2015 migration from Turkey to Germany.
Beginning in September 2015 a flow totaling about 1 million people made the voyage from Turkey to Germany through the Westerns Balkans, led by moral German thought to do the ‘right thing’ by means of sheltering refugees from Syria. However, reality caught up quickly. Turkey pushed migration as a political weapon knowing that Germany would budge once the numbers became unmanageable thereby enabling President Erdogan to demand money (5 billion euro) and Visa free access for Turks to the Schengen area.
Migration to the southern border has yet again turned into a political weapon, moving forward just prior to the U.S. Midterms. In the EU, Turkey was given too much time to push people forward. Clearly, we can learn from Europe and begin strict negotiations with Mexico and countries of origin, by possibly exploring deployment of federal US troops ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE BORDER. There, the US so-called “Catch and Release” policy can’t and won’t apply. This could be as simple as President Trump calling Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and making him an offer he can’t refuse.
Turkey began negotiations after the Balkan route had been closed off by Macedonia, pushed by Hungary and Austria. Closing borders are effective, but mainly at an early stage. Closing off our southern border is effective as blocking the Balkan Route showed. As the current caravan can be monitored, it should be done in a timely manner, accompanied by visible measures to deter it from continuing, like increasing border protection and army deployment.
As the caravan began in Turkey, the composition changed while it moved. Syrians were the core however on the way it grew in size, as people from Southern Asia, Northern Africa and the Balkans joined pretending to be Syrian. A large portion of the population of Albania is now living in Germany. Kosovo, an EU protectorate, joined the caravan. Similarly, the caravan heading to the U.S. border has been changing its composition and growing as entry through US airports is strictly monitored, the Southern Border is the weakest point. The ‘refugees’ pose as asylum seekers, but in fact intend fast access to social benefits and labor market.
During the 2015 migration the fear of infiltration by members of ISIS was ignored as the pictures of ‘poor refugees’ dominated. As events have shown, the caravan had been infiltrated and terror attacks were carried out across Western Europe. It became impossible to identify ‘refugees’ as most disposed of their documents. Comparing that to the current migration to the U.S., the changing nature of the caravan opens it up to infiltration of all sorts.
The physical and economic threat facing the West is not a new one, the level of attention that’s being given is. President Trump along with a few in the Legislative branch have a clearer understanding and willingness to take the necessary actions, but successfully invoking those authorities under the current political environment won’t happen without major political battles.